Hong Kong: Downgrading GDP forecasts

Hong Kong GDP growth slowed more than expected GDP slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in 3Q18 from 3.5% previously. It was the slowest rate since 3Q16.  The main factor behind the slowdown was consumption. While this still grew 5.2% YoY in 3Q18, it was the slowest growth rate since 1Q17. We believe this is a result of consumers making large down payments on residential properties, which reduced the pool of money available for other purchases.  The other unexpected effect is that…

Mapping Hong Kong’s ETF market

Assets under management in exchanged-traded funds are burgeoning, but growth is concentrated in the US and Europe, writes Fiona Rintoul. By the end of August 2020, the ETF/exchange-traded product (ETP) market had reached a record US$7.1 trillion (€6 trillion) of assets under management (AuM), according to the consultancy ETFGI, but just $45 billion of that was attributable to the Asia-Pacific hub of Hong Kong. Trading in ETFs on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange typically accounts for less than 5% of…

Qatar Economic Forum begins today

Under the patronage of H.H. the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the activities of the first edition of the three-day Qatar Economic Forum starts Monday, June 21, 2021 via videoconferencing. H.H. the Amir will deliver a speech at the opening session of the forum, which is held in cooperation with Bloomberg, under the theme ‘Reimagining the World’. Global government leaders participating in the inaugural virtual event include H.E. President of the Republic of Ghana Nana Akufo-Addo; H.E. Prime…

Hong Kong quarterly: which industries will survive the deep recession?

Hong Kong has had difficulty coming out recession The economy has been in recession since 3Q19, and fell by -8.9%YoY in 1Q20, which is the deepest contraction since 1974 when the data was first compiled.  The trade war clearly hurt economic growth in 2019, with GDP growth of just 0.7%YoY and 0.4%YoY in the first two quarters of 2019, respectively.  The arrival of social unrest, together with the trade war, brought the economy into recession, with drops of -2.8%YoY and…

Hong Kong: Deep recession

GDP fell 8.9% YoY in 1Q20 Consumption contracted 10.3% YoY as opportunities for shopping and travel were severely curtailed during the Covid-19 outbreak. Investment contracted even more, by 13.9% YoY, as construction projects were delayed because outdoor work was prohibited. Even though the government spent money and imports dropped in 1Q20, this has not stopped the economy from contracting for three quarters in a row. More challenges ahead – Protests Unlike other economies which may return to normal after Covid-19…

Hong Kong: Exports drop further

It’s not just the Chinese New Year Hong Kong’s exports fell 6.9% year-on-year in February after falling 0.4%YoY in January. The decline looks bad compared to a month ago but in fact, it is even more severe than it looks when we consider the base effect.  The value of exports was HK$228.67 billion in February 2019, lower than HK$245.74 billion in the same month last year. We can’t just blame the Chinese New Year for this result. Trade tensions and…